Sunday's NBA Slate: Ride the Rookies, Fade the Fading Stars

Sunday slates in the NBA can be tricky. You've got teams playing out the string, guys resting up for the playoffs, and a whole lot of motivation questions. But there's always value if you know where to look. Today, I'm eyeing a couple of spots where the young guns could really shine, and a veteran who might be due for a quiet afternoon.

Let's start in Detroit. The Pistons are hosting the Wizards, and while neither team is setting the world on fire, there's a guy in Washington you absolutely need in your DFS lineups: Deni Avdija. He's been on a tear lately, putting up 20 points, 13 boards, and 5 assists against the Celtics on March 17th. He followed that up with 22 points and 8 rebounds just two nights later. With Kyle Kuzma sometimes a bit erratic, Avdija is stepping up as the secondary scorer and primary rebounder. The Pistons' defense, which ranks 28th in opponent points per game this season, isn't exactly going to slow him down. He’s cheap, he’s got a high usage rate right now, and he’s going to feast.

Thing is, sometimes the biggest names don't deliver when you need them most. Look at what happened with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against the Mavericks on March 14th – just 20 points on 6-of-15 shooting. He bounced back, sure, but the point stands. Today, I’m actually a little wary of Domantas Sabonis when the Kings visit the Raptors. Sabonis has been a triple-double machine, no doubt. He had 13 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists against the Grizzlies last week. But Toronto, despite their struggles, still has some length in the frontcourt with Kelly Olynyk and Jontay Porter. More importantly, the Raptors play at the league's slowest pace, which can limit overall possessions and, by extension, fantasy opportunities. Sabonis might get his boards, but his assist and scoring numbers could take a hit. I’d lean away from him in DFS contests where you need explosive upside.

**The OKC Thunder: More Than Just SGA**

Everyone talks about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and rightfully so. He's a legitimate MVP candidate, dropping 37 points on the Jazz on March 20th. But the Thunder have quietly developed some serious depth, and that's where the value lies for Sunday's matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks. This is a game with massive playoff implications for both teams, so you know everyone will be playing hard.

Jalen Williams is my absolute favorite play of the day. He’s been consistently excellent, averaging 19.3 points, 4.4 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game this season. But lately, he’s taken it up a notch. He went for 23 points and 10 assists against the Grizzlies on March 16th, showing his all-around game. Then, he poured in 26 points against the Jazz. The Bucks' perimeter defense has been leaky at times, especially when Damian Lillard isn't fully engaged on that end. Williams is too quick, too crafty, and too confident right now not to exploit that. He’s going to get his shots, and he’s going to make them. He’s a lock for 20+ points and probably a handful of assists too.

And don't sleep on Chet Holmgren. He's had a few quieter games, but his upside is immense. Against the Rockets on February 25th, he had 29 points and 8 boards. The Bucks have Brook Lopez, but Holmgren's versatility to step out and shoot threes (he's hitting 38.6% from deep) will pull Lopez away from the rim. I predict Holmgren breaks out of his mini-slump and drops 25 points and grabs 10 rebounds against a Milwaukee team that sometimes struggles with agile bigs.