Seattle and Vegas: The NBA's Next Big Bet
Look, we’ve been hearing about NBA expansion for years. It was always "around the corner," a whisper in the wind. But this time, it feels different. Adam Silver's been dropping hints thicker than a brick wall, and the league's valuation soaring past $10 billion makes two new franchises almost inevitable. The smart money, and frankly, the only money, is on Seattle and Las Vegas.
Seattle's a no-brainer. The Supersonics left in 2008, a wound that never really healed for a city that loves its basketball. They won a title in 1979 and made the Finals in '96 with Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp. The KeyArena is long gone, replaced by the state-of-the-art Climate Pledge Arena, which opened in 2021 and already hosts the NHL's Kraken. You think that place wouldn't sell out 41 NBA nights a year? Please. They'd sell season tickets to the parking lot attendants.
Vegas is the new frontier. It’s no longer just a boxing town or a quick weekend trip. The Golden Knights brought the city a Stanley Cup in 2023, and the Raiders moved in during 2020. The T-Mobile Arena, home to the Knights, is a prime candidate, but there’s also talk of a new arena specifically for an NBA team. Vegas has proven it can support major pro sports, and the NBA loves the glitz. The 2023 Summer League in Vegas drew massive crowds, with Victor Wembanyama's debut being the hottest ticket in town. This isn't just about adding two cities; it's about adding two markets that are ready to throw money at the league.
The Expansion Draft Headache
Here's the thing: adding two teams means an expansion draft, and that's where things get interesting for the existing 30 franchises. Nobody wants to give up talent for nothing. The most common rumor circulating is that each current team would protect eight players. The two new franchises would then pick one unprotected player from each of the 30 teams, meaning they'd each get 15 players.
Think about that for a second. If you're the Boston Celtics, you're protecting Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Al Horford, and maybe Sam Hauser. That leaves one spot for a young guy like Payton Pritchard or a role player you value. It forces tough decisions. It means teams will have to weigh veteran depth against promising young talent. And let’s be real, no team is going to lose a truly impactful player. They'll protect their stars and their key rotation pieces. We’re talking about end-of-bench guys, expiring contracts, or players who haven't quite panned out. The new teams will be built on castoffs and potential, not immediate contenders.
The Format and The Future
There’s also been chatter about how these new teams would enter the draft lottery. Do they get a guaranteed top-5 pick in their inaugural season? Or do they just get a standard lottery entry based on their expansion draft roster, which would almost certainly put them near the bottom anyway? My money’s on some kind of lottery boost for the first year or two. You can’t launch a franchise with a bunch of G-League level talent and expect immediate fan enthusiasm without some hope for a future star.
Real talk: the NBA needs to be careful here. Expansion drafts usually create weak teams for years. The Charlotte Bobcats, for example, joined in 2004 and didn't make the playoffs until 2010. They won just 18 games in their first season. The league needs these new teams to be competitive enough to generate excitement, not just fill seats. My hot take? The NBA will give Seattle a top-3 pick in their first draft and Vegas a top-5 pick, just to ensure they have a legitimate shot at a franchise cornerstone right out of the gate. Otherwise, we’re looking at a decade of bottom feeders, and nobody wants that.
I predict the NBA will announce the two new franchises by the end of 2024, with play starting in the 2026-27 season.