Nuggets' Unbeaten Home Run Faces a Real Test in Dame

The Denver Nuggets are on a tear at home, winners of eight straight at Ball Arena. They haven't dropped a game on their own floor since February 28, a 112-105 loss to the Lakers. That’s a serious stretch, and it’s why they’re sitting pretty at 43-28, fifth in the West. Nikola Jokic is still doing Nikola Jokic things, putting up a ridiculous 26.1 points, 12.3 boards, and 9.0 assists per night. The man is a walking triple-double threat every time he laces them up.

But tonight, they welcome a Portland Trail Blazers team that, while inconsistent, has one of the league's most dangerous offensive weapons in Damian Lillard. Lillard just dropped 40 points on the Celtics last week and is averaging 32.1 points a game, good for third in the NBA. He’s the kind of guy who can single-handedly wreck a home winning streak, regardless of how well Denver’s been playing. The Blazers are hanging on to the eighth spot in the West at 35-36, and they need every win they can get. They’re not coming to Denver to roll over.

The Nuggets beat Portland 120-107 back on February 23, but that was in Portland and Jamal Murray went off for 24 points. Murray, of course, is done for the year with that ACL tear he suffered on April 12. His absence changes everything for Denver's offense, especially in crunch time. Michael Porter Jr. has stepped up, averaging over 23 points in his last five games, but he's not the same kind of creator or late-game shot-maker Murray was.

Denver’s Home Fortress vs. Dame Time

Look, the Nuggets' home record is impressive. They're 27-8 at Ball Arena this season, one of the best marks in the league. They defend well there, allowing opponents just 106.8 points per game on their own court. Against the Knicks on May 5, they held New York to 89 points. That kind of defensive effort is tough to maintain, especially when you're facing a guy like Lillard, who can hit from anywhere past half-court.

Portland, on the other hand, is a streaky road team. They beat the Pacers by 29 on May 2 but then got blown out by the Hawks by 32 just two days later. Their inconsistency is maddening, but their peak is high. C.J. McCollum is a reliable second option, chipping in 22.8 points a game. And Jusuf Nurkic, the former Nugget, always seems to play with a little extra juice against his old team. He had 19 points and 12 rebounds against them in that February matchup.

Here's the thing: Denver's defense, even at home, can be exploited by an elite guard. Think about that Lakers game back in February – LeBron James carved them up for 27 points and 10 assists. Lillard presents a similar, if not more explosive, challenge. The Nuggets will need to make him work for every bucket, and not just rely on Jokic's offensive wizardry to bail them out. They can't afford a slow start against a Blazers team desperate for a playoff spot.

I think the Nuggets' home win streak is actually a bit of a mirage at this point in the season. They've played some lesser teams during this run, and the pressure of maintaining it might just get to them. I'm calling it now: Dame goes for 45, and the Blazers shock Denver on their home floor, snapping that eight-game streak with a hard-fought 118-115 win.