Let's break down the top contenders for the 2025-26 ROY, based on what I saw from their Summer League and early preseason flashes.
This feels like a no-brainer. Baldwin went first overall to a Blazers team that just shipped off Anfernee Simons and Malcolm Brogdon, clearing the deck for him to be *the* guy. He's a pure point guard, something Portland hasn't had since Damian Lillard was in his prime. Baldwin’s Summer League run was electric: 19.8 points, 7.2 assists, and 2.1 steals in five games. He's got that innate feel for the pick-and-roll, a skill that translates immediately. His shot's still developing — 32% from three in Vegas isn't going to cut it long-term — but his aggression getting to the rim and his passing vision are elite. He's going to have the ball in his hands 90% of the time, and that means counting stats.
*Projected Per 36 Minutes:* 18.5 points, 8.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals.
Jefferson is a walking mismatch. At 6'9" with a 7'2" wingspan, he's got the size of a power forward but moves like a small forward. The Pistons got a steal at No. 3, especially with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren already establishing themselves. Jefferson won't be asked to carry the load offensively from day one, which could actually help him thrive. He averaged 16.5 points and 8.9 rebounds in his final season at UConn, showcasing a developing post-game and a surprisingly smooth mid-range jumper. His defense is ahead of most rookies, too. He's going to get plenty of minutes alongside Ausar Thompson, and that defensive identity will be key for Monty Williams. The real question is his three-point shot; it's still a work in progress. If he can hit 35% from deep, he's an All-Star in the making.
*Projected Per 36 Minutes:* 15.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 blocks.
Look, I'm higher on Dixon than most. He went second overall, and yeah, centers rarely win ROY. But hear me out: the Hornets are desperate for an anchor. Mark Williams hasn't exactly seized the job, and Dixon is a monster. He's 7'1", 270 pounds, and a relentless rebounder. He averaged 13.2 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game in his lone year at Kentucky. His offense is mostly dunks and put-backs right now, but he sets bruising screens and rolls hard. With LaMelo Ball feeding him, he's going to get easy looks. His biggest challenge will be foul trouble and adjusting to the speed of NBA guards. If he can stay on the floor for 28-30 minutes, his rebounding and blocking numbers will jump off the page. Remember, Dikembe Mutombo made a career out of that.
*Projected Per 36 Minutes:* 12.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 1.0 steal.
This is my dark horse pick. Any time the Spurs draft a guard, you pay attention. Jackson isn't the flashiest, but he's got that quintessential Spurs fundamental game. He's a 6'6" combo guard who can shoot it (40% from three in college), pass it, and defend multiple positions. He's going to play alongside Victor Wembanyama, and that's a dream scenario for any rookie. Jackson averaged 18.2 points and 5.8 assists at Baylor, showing he can create his own shot. He's not going to put up huge assist numbers because Tre Jones is still there, but his efficiency and mature decision-making will earn Pop's trust quickly. He’s already showing a smooth pick-and-pop game with Wemby in preseason. My hot take: Jackson finishes top-3 in ROY voting, quietly exceeding expectations.
*Projected Per 36 Minutes:* 16.0 points, 4.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 steal.
Johnson is an athletic freak. The Wizards are a mess, which means plenty of opportunities for a guy like MJ. He's a 6'8" wing with explosive leaping ability and a motor that never quits. He put up 17.5 points and 7.1 rebounds in his sophomore year at Duke. The issue? His shot selection can be erratic, and he's still figuring out how to play within an offense. He'll get a ton of touches in Washington, probably too many. This could lead to some inefficient nights but also some highlight-reel dunks and big scoring games. He’s going to fill up the box score in a hurry, for better or worse. Think early-career Andrew Wiggins, but with slightly better passing instincts. If he can rein in his turnovers, he'll be a force.
*Projected Per 36 Minutes:* 17.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 block.
We've seen it a million times: the No. 1 pick isn't always the best rookie. Paolo Banchero won ROY in 2023, but the 2022 class saw Scottie Barnes (No. 4 pick) take it over Cade Cunningham (No. 1). What matters most is opportunity and fit. Baldwin in Portland is a perfect storm for a point guard. He's going to get the keys to the offense from day one. Jefferson in Detroit, while not the top option, has a chance to be incredibly efficient alongside established players. Dixon has a wide-open lane to major minutes in Charlotte, simply because there's no one else. Jackson in San Antonio is the ultimate "Spurs effect" candidate – quietly productive. Johnson in Washington is probably the riskiest, as the sheer volume of shots he'll take could lead to empty stats.
Thing is, talent still matters. These top-5 guys were picked high for a reason. They all have unique skill sets that should translate. The difference often comes down to coaching, health, and a bit of luck.
My bold prediction for the 2025-26 Rookie of the Year: **Ace Baldwin Jr. wins it easily, leading all rookies in points and assists, with Dante Jackson finishing a surprising second.**
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