The 2025-26 NBA season is still a speck on the horizon, but if you're like me, you're already trying to sketch out how the Western Conference might shake out. It's never too early to talk playoffs, especially in a West that feels like it’s going to be an absolute bloodbath for the next few years. Forget the play-in; even securing a top-six seed will be a dogfight.

Let's pencil in the locks first, because some things just feel inevitable. The Denver Nuggets, assuming Nikola Jokic is still doing MVP things and Jamal Murray stays healthy, are a top-tier team. They've won 58 and 57 games the last two seasons, so a similar mark is a safe bet. The Oklahoma City Thunder, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading a rapidly maturing core that includes Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, are only getting better. They won 57 games this past season, securing the No. 1 seed, and that trajectory points to another high finish.

Then you've got the Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards is a legitimate superstar, and with Rudy Gobert still anchoring the defense, they're a consistent threat. Karl-Anthony Towns' health is always a question mark, but even without him for stretches, they pushed 56 wins. Look, I know everyone loves the shiny new toys, but the Wolves' defense is built for the long haul.

That’s three. The Golden State Warriors? I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’re back in the top six. Steph Curry isn't immortal, but he's still Steph Curry, and if Jonathan Kuminga takes another leap, and they make one smart veteran addition, they'll be dangerous. They scraped into the play-in at 46 wins this year. I think they've got one more run in them to avoid that mess.

Now for the teams fighting to avoid the play-in. This is where it gets spicy. The Phoenix Suns are perpetually fascinating. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal – the talent is undeniable. But can they stay healthy? Can they find a consistent identity? They won 49 games this season, good for a sixth seed. If the injury bug bites again, they’re in trouble. The Dallas Mavericks, fresh off a Finals run, will be looking to build on that momentum. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are a terrifying offensive duo, and if Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford continue to grow, they're a threat. They finished 50-32, the fifth seed. The Clippers? It all hinges on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. If they both play 65+ games, they're a top-four team. If not, they’re battling for a play-in spot. Their 51 wins this season felt like a minor miracle given the health issues.

Real talk: I think at least one of those three — Suns, Mavs, Clippers — ends up in the 7-10 range. My money’s on the Suns. The vibes just feel off sometimes, and relying on those three stars to stay upright for 82 games is a big ask.

Here's the thing: the battle for the 7-10 seeds is going to be brutal. You've got the New Orleans Pelicans, who seem stuck in this purgatory. Zion Williamson needs to play more than 30-40 games. Brandon Ingram's future is always a question. They finished 49-33 this year and lost the 7/8 play-in game. The Sacramento Kings, led by De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, are right there too. They won 46 games, the same as the Warriors, and got bounced in the 9/10 play-in. They need more defense. The Houston Rockets, with their young talent and Ime Udoka's coaching, are on the rise. They won 41 games and were a fringe contender for the play-in this year. Adding a veteran piece or two could push them over the edge.

Don't sleep on the Memphis Grizzlies, either. If Ja Morant is back and healthy for a full season, and Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. stay on the court, they're a dangerous team. They finished 27-55 without Morant for most of the year. They're better than that record suggests. Even the Lakers, depending on what they do with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, could be in the mix. They snagged the 7th seed at 47-35 this season.

Tiebreakers are going to matter immensely. Head-to-head records against conference opponents, overall conference record – these things will decide who gets the extra home game in the play-in, or who avoids it entirely. Imagine a scenario where the Pelicans, Kings, Rockets, and Grizzlies all finish within a game of each other, say 45-47 wins. It's going to come down to who won that specific January game against a division rival.

Specific games to watch? Every single divisional matchup between these fringe teams. Rockets-Mavs, Kings-Warriors, Pelicans-Grizzlies. Those are four-point swings. Keep an eye on late-season road trips for these teams, too. A back-to-back in Denver and Minnesota in March could decide everything for a team like Sacramento.

My hot take? The Memphis Grizzlies, with a healthy Morant, Bane, and Jackson Jr., will jump from the lottery to a top-eight seed. They're too talented to stay down. The physicality and grit they play with, when healthy, is unmatched.

Here's my bold prediction: The 2025-26 Western Conference will see the 7th through 10th seeds separated by a mere two games, with the New Orleans Pelicans ultimately missing the play-in tournament entirely due to a brutal March schedule and a 1-3 record against the Kings.