Miami's MAC Muddle: How Travis Steele Can Actually Win

Remember when Miami basketball felt like a real thing? Like, actual buzz around Oxford, not just the football team's occasional MAC title. It’s been a minute. The last time the RedHawks made the NCAA Tournament, Lamar Odom was still hooping in the NBA. That was 2007, a 58-55 loss to Oregon. Since then? A whole lot of middling.

Travis Steele is entering his third season, and the honeymoon's over. His first year, 2022-23, saw them finish 12-20 overall, 6-12 in the MAC. Not great, but a fresh start. Last season? A step back, honestly. They went 16-17, but the conference record stayed put at 7-11. That's not the upward trajectory anyone in southwest Ohio was hoping for, especially not after Steele signed a five-year deal worth $5 million.

Here's the thing: Steele inherited a tough spot. Jack Owens left the cupboard pretty bare, and the transfer portal giveth and taketh away. But you can't just keep blaming the previous guy. Miami hasn't had a winning MAC record since the 2008-09 season when they went 10-6. That's fifteen years of futility. Fans are getting restless, and rightfully so. The program has history – four Sweet Sixteen appearances, even though the last one was way back in 1999 with Wally Szczerbiak.

Steele's got some pieces, no doubt. Darweshi Hunter, a grad transfer from Northern Illinois, showed flashes last season, averaging 12.7 points and 4.9 rebounds. He shot 38.6% from three, which is solid for a guy taking that many attempts. And then there’s Jaquel Morris, a forward who put up 8.8 points and 6.6 boards per game. He’s got size and can be a presence. But they lost Anderson Mirambeaux, their leading scorer at 14.2 points per game, to the portal, which stings. You can’t afford to lose your best offensive weapon when you’re already struggling to score.

Look, Miami finished 10th in the MAC last year. They ranked 304th nationally in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. That’s just not going to cut it. They averaged just 71.9 points per game, and that included some non-conference cupcake matchups. Their defense wasn't much better, giving up 72.8 points. Those numbers tell a story of a team that can’t consistently stop anyone and can’t consistently score.

So, what’s the answer? Steele needs to find a true go-to scorer, someone who can create their own shot when the offense bogs down. Hunter’s good, but he’s not that guy every night. They also need to get tougher on the boards. Last season, they were out-rebounded by an average of 1.4 per game. In the MAC, where games are often physical and grinders, those extra possessions matter.

My hot take? If Steele doesn't get to at least a .500 MAC record this season, his seat is going to be scorching hot. The university is investing in facilities, trying to show a commitment to basketball. They just installed a new court at Millett Hall. But a shiny floor doesn't win games. Winning does. They’ve recruited some intriguing freshmen like Evan Dickerson, a local guard, but banking on freshmen to immediately turn around a struggling program is always a gamble.

They open with a non-conference slate that includes games against Xavier and Cincinnati. Those will be tough tests, sure, but they’ll also be a measuring stick. If they get blown out every time, it’s not a good sign for conference play. Steele needs to show progress, real progress, and not just in the win-loss column. He needs to show a clear identity, a style of play that maximizes his roster's strengths.

Prediction: Miami finishes 9th in the MAC this year. They'll show some flashes of improvement but ultimately won't break through the middle of the pack.